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Mantic funding, valuation and investors
London AI forecasting startup — adapts frontier models to assign calibrated probabilities to messy real-world events.
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Funding, valuation & investors
Answer-first snapshotLatest funding
Seed
$25M · September 2026
Latest known valuation
Not publicly disclosed
Total disclosed equity funding
$25M
Excludes debt, grants, acquisitions, secondaries, and IPO proceeds.
Current status
private
seed · London, UK
Investors in latest funding
Lead: Radical Ventures
Other: Microsoft M12 , Thinking Machines Lab , Balderton Capital
Overview
Mantic is a London AI company co-founded in 2024 by Toby Shevlane (ex-Google DeepMind research scientist) and Ben Day. It adapts third-party frontier models for judgmental forecasting — assigning probabilities to political, economic, business, and cultural questions where context matters as much as historical data.
On September 18, 2026 Reuters and follow-on coverage reported a $25 million seed led by Radical Ventures, with Microsoft’s M12, Thinking Machines Lab, Balderton Capital, and others participating. Radical partner Aaron Rosenberg joined the board. Valuation was not disclosed.
Proof point: Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup — Mantic finished ahead of every human contestant and behind one other AI system (laertes), in the first Cup where AI systems dominated. Named customers were not disclosed; Rosenberg said companies, governments, and hedge funds have shown interest. Not a weather or markets-quant shop.
Why Mantic is interesting
September 18, 2026: $25M seed led by Radical Ventures after Mantic beat every human in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup — a measurable forecast benchmark with Balderton, M12, and Thinking Machines Lab on the cap table.
Product & use cases
Forecasting systems that score and refine model-based probability estimates against historical events and live tournaments, sold toward institutional buyers who need calibrated judgment under uncertainty.
- Hedge funds seeking forecasting edge on event-driven questions
- Policy and corporate strategy teams tracking geopolitical/business outcomes
- Organizations replacing consensus crowd forecasts with scored model ensembles
Key facts
- Sep 18, 2026: $25M seed led by Radical; valuation undisclosed
- Balderton, M12, Thinking Machines Lab participated
- Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup: beat all humans; one AI finished ahead
- Customer names not disclosed
Funding history (newest first)
Seed
2026-09 $25M- Radical Ventures (lead)
- Microsoft M12 (participant)
- Thinking Machines Lab (participant)
- Balderton Capital (participant)
Source: Read source · reuters.com
Competitive landscape
Edge: Public Metaculus Cup ranking is a rare external accuracy signal versus AI products that only claim eval scores on private benchmarks.
One Cup win does not prove durable edge across all question types and horizons. Treat Metaculus results as evidence of capability, not as ARR.
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Human forecasting platforms (Metaculus, Good Judgment) adjacent
Tournaments and crowds; Mantic competes as an AI entrant and commercial product.
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Generic LLM chat products alternative
Chatbots generate text; Mantic sells calibrated probabilities scored against outcomes.
Market / IPO context
Editorial / static context — not a live quote.
FAQs about Mantic
Practical answers founders, operators, and investors typically search for.
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Editorial note: AI tools assisted with research, structure, or drafting. Venture Capital Tracker retains human editorial responsibility for factual accuracy, relevance, and source quality before publication.