The venture capital method is a back-of-the-envelope valuation that starts with a future exit and works backward to what the company should be worth today.

How it works

Steps:

1. Project exit value — revenue × reasonable multiple, or EBITDA × sector multiple, at a plausible exit year
2. Apply target return — early-stage investors often need 10x–30x on winners to fund portfolio losses
3. Adjust for dilution — assume future rounds shrink early investors’ ownership (e.g., retain 50% of initial stake after Series B and C)
4. Solve for post-money today — exit value ÷ target multiple ÷ dilution factor

Example sketch: $200M exit in five years, investor wants 20x, expects 50% dilution from follow-ons. Post-money today ≈ $200M ÷ 20 ÷ 2 = $5M. A $1M check implies ~20% ownership at entry — consistent with seed norms.

The method is sensitive to exit assumptions. Small changes in terminal multiple swing pre-money sharply. That is why investors triangulate with comparables, founder market, and ownership needed for fund construction.

Why it matters

• Founders: Aligns pitch valuation with credible exit paths. Claiming $50M pre-money without a path to billion-dollar outcomes breaks VC math quickly.
• Investors: Standardizes discussion in partnership meetings — “At this price, we need X exit to return the fund.”

Common mistake

Using hockey-stick exit revenue without checking implied market share. A $500M revenue exit in a $2B TAM means you must dominate — investors will push back.

Related ideas

See also venture capital, Berkus method, comparables, and entry multiple.