Hit rate is the share of investments in a portfolio that achieve outsized success — commonly defined as returning several times capital or producing a liquidity event — relative to all deals done.

How it works

Venture returns follow a power law: a handful of companies generate most of the fund’s gains. Hit rate quantifies selection quality — if a seed fund made 40 investments and four exited at 10x or more, the hit rate might be cited as 10%. Definitions vary: some count any profitable exit; others require 5x or 10x gross MOIC. Hit rate interacts with portfolio size: spraying many small bets may yield more hits in count but lower average quality; concentrated portfolios have fewer data points. LPs compare hit rate across vintages and stages, recognizing that early-stage hit rates look different from growth equity where more deals return modest multiples.

Why it matters

• Investors / LPs: High IRR with a single lucky exit and low hit rate may not repeat. Consistent hit rates across partners and vintages suggest durable edge in sourcing or diligence.
• Founders: Hit rate is a fund-level metric, not a prediction about your company. Thesis fit and partner attention matter more than historical averages.

Common mistake

Expecting high hit rates in early-stage VC. Loss ratios of 50% or more are normal; the model assumes many zeros and a few massive winners.

Related ideas

Power law, home run, loss ratio, and IRR are the standard framework for interpreting hit rate.