The Pitchbook-NVCA Q4 2025 Venture Monitor is the authoritative quarterly data source for U.S. VC. Here’s what it reveals for NYC.

Q4 2025 headline data

• 65.4% — AI’s share of U.S. VC deal value.
• 39.4% — AI’s share of U.S. VC deal count.
• Dominant verticals: SaaS, AI/ML, Big Data, Mobile, Fintech, TMT, Life sciences, Healthtech, Cloudtech/DevOps, Robotics/drones.
• Record year: 2025 set new annual records on absolute deal value driven by AI mega-rounds.

NYC implications

1. Percentage share optics: NYC looks “smaller” when measured as % of national total because Bay Area AI mega-rounds distort totals.
2. Absolute dollars: NYC absolute funding stayed strong.
3. Sector mix: NYC’s diversified mix — fintech, health, enterprise SaaS, media — means Bay Area AI dominance doesn’t redefine the NYC opportunity set.

Capital concentration dynamics

The Q4 2025 data confirms:

• Fewer, larger deals across all geographies.
• Top-quartile deal size has grown faster than median.
• Late-stage concentration in AI “platform” companies.
• Early-stage remaining healthy but selective.

What NYC founders should take from this

1. Benchmark to NYC peers, not national averages: Your Series A is competing locally for capital.
2. Sector discipline matters: If you’re not AI-native, frame your wedge tightly.
3. Unit economics beat hype: Capital concentration favors companies with clean metrics.
4. Follow-on risk: Smaller firms may struggle to lead follow-on; stack reserves in cap table planning.

Fund performance data (Carta Q4 2025)

• Smaller funds outperform larger: Sub-$200M funds beat $500M+ funds across most performance thresholds.
• 2021 vintage struggling: Median TVPI just above 1.0x.
• 2022–2023 vintages benefiting from corrected entry valuations.

Cambridge Associates H1 2025

• IT + healthcare + industrials = 85% of invested capital in U.S. VC index.
• Top-quartile IRR above 25% for enterprise software.
• Biotech variance higher, with outsized winners possible.

Practical takeaway

• Founders: Read the Q4 Venture Monitor each quarter to benchmark your sector.
• Investors: Sector mix + fund size + vintage year are the three biggest return predictors.
• LPs: Vintage-year exposure matters more than individual fund selection in some cycles.

Sources

1. Pitchbook-NVCA Q4 2025: https://nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/q4-2025-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor.pdf
2. Carta Q4 2025 VC Performance: https://carta.com/data/vc-fund-performance-q4-2025/
3. Cambridge Associates H1 2025: https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/insight/us-pe-vc-benchmark-commentary-first-half-2025/